Bonds spent last week catching their breath after a sharp rally, and this week opens the same way: quiet, sideways, and waiting. The Fed announcement on Wednesday is the main event on the calendar.
What happened
The big move came midweek, when worries about funding at a high-profile AI infrastructure company spread to larger tech names. Investors rushed toward Treasuries, and the 10-year yield dropped by a wide margin in a single day. Friday was a different story. Trading was calm, bonds slipped a little, and the 10-year yield finished the week right around the 5 percent mark, a few hundredths higher on the day. Nothing in the data changed the picture.
This morning looks much the same. Bonds opened a hair stronger, and the tech story that set off the rally has settled into a sideways pattern. Both markets are waiting to see what comes next.
What to watch this week
Today brings only a regional manufacturing survey, so there is little to move the market early in the week. The Fed announces its decision on Wednesday. Few people expect a surprise on policy itself, so the attention will go to the tone of the statement and any hint about what the Fed plans next. Clear guidance could push yields in either direction, and vague guidance could leave bonds right where they are. Tech earnings and credit headlines will keep adding noise along the way.
What it means for you
If you are floating a rate, understand that calm weeks can end quickly. A Fed meeting is one of the few scheduled events that can change the direction of rates in an afternoon. If you have a contract and a closing in the next few weeks, a conversation about locking before Wednesday is worth having.
If you are still shopping, the steady market gives you room to plan without pressure. Decide what price and monthly budget feel comfortable, and we can run the scenarios so you know where you stand. Homeowners considering a refinance should settle on a target and let us watch the market for you. Reacting to every headline rarely beats a clear plan.
The bottom line
Last week's rally has paused, and the market is waiting on the Fed. Keep your lock decision tied to your own closing date, expect a little more volatility around Wednesday, and call us any time you want to talk through your options.